1 "C" is better than 3
Maxx "C" is legal at 3 copies in the OCG and Master Duel. It is banned in the TCG, which is rather clearly the best approach. Let's consider its situation in Master Duel. A common sentiment, even among players who want it banned, goes along the lines of: "While Maxx 'C' sucks, it's better at 3 than 1. This makes it less sacky." That idea is ridiculous.
Probability#
Let's work out some general probabilities for turn 1. Assuming a 40-card deck, 5 card hand:
| Number of copies | Odds of seeing 1+ | Number of copies | Odds of seeing 1+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.5% | 6 | 57.7% |
| 2 | 23.7% | 7 | 63.9% |
| 3 | 33.8% | 8 | 69.4% |
| 4 | 42.7% | 9 | 74.2% |
| 5 | 50.7% | 10 | 78.3% |
You can use a hypergeometric calculator or websites like this one to get these values.
At the moment, if you're not playing a deck exceptionally well-positioned against Maxx "C", 9/40 cards are typically dedicated to the EARTH Insect: 3 Maxx "C", 3 Ash Blossom, 2 Called By, and 1 Crossout. When going first, your odds look something like this:
| No Maxx "C" | Maxx "C" but drew counter | Maxx "C" and no counter |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2% | 19.5% | 14.3% |
So you're spending 9 deck slots and will (likely) lose to Maxx "C" 14.3% of the time. Crossout isn't a particularly good card, so you might try to cut it:
| No Maxx "C" | Maxx "C" but drew counter | Maxx "C" and no counter |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2% | 17.1% | 16.7% |
It's only 1 card, so the odds don't change that much. If you also cut Called By:
| No Maxx "C" | Maxx "C" but drew counter | Maxx "C" and no counter |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2% | 11.4% | 22.4% |
Quite unpleasant. Now, let's try limiting Maxx "C" to 1 and re-run the numbers.
| No Maxx "C" | Maxx "C" but drew counter | Maxx "C" and no counter |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| No Maxx "C" | Maxx "C" but drew counter | Maxx "C" and no counter |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| No Maxx "C" | Maxx "C" but drew counter | Maxx "C" and no counter |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | 4.2% | 8.3% |
| No Maxx "C" | Maxx "C" but drew counter | Maxx "C" and no counter |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | 0% | 12.5% |
In other words: even if you completely cut every single Maxx "C" counter, the odds of it resolving are still lower with 1 "C" legal when compared to 3 "C"/6 counters. With 1 Maxx "C", you can play all the same decks as before. You can play the same number of counters, or less. And whichever way you choose, it'll end less games.
Going second is not really possible to analyze in the same manner.
- The turn 1 player may set up negates/shufflers/other ways of ensuring their Maxx "C" resolves.
- They could draw through more of their deck and pick up a Maxx "C" mid-turn.
- If you (as the turn 2 player) open with 1 Ash and use it on turn 1, you won't have it to negate a Maxx "C" on your turn.
- Called By on turn 1 will still linger for turn 2 - potentially on both Maxx "C" and Ash.
But the odds will reduce similarly the more you hit Maxx "C".
And of course, considerations will vary by meta. For example - Dimensional Shifter/Fissure will alter the odds and strategies.
"But it feels worse"#
Sure, that's possible. But here are some things that feel better when Maxx "C" is at least somewhat restricted:
- You get Maxx C'ed less, even if you drop its counters
- You get 2-8 more slots in your deck to play around with
- You can't get C'ed multiple turns in a row
- The "C" is more likely to be banned on the next list
- Floowandereeze and stun decks get (slightly) relatively weaker
It's really not a close call.
Conclusion#
Maxx "C" is a blight on the game. The fewer games it decides, the better. If Konami refuses to outright ban the card, limiting it would still improve the situation (and ease the transition to banning it later). But it absolutely should be banned.
Some other complications not considered here, though they're not super relevant to the net odds:
- Drawing into a Maxx "C" counter (but Maxx "C" can just be chained to desires)
- Counter counters like Ghost Belle and Gamma